Beat the Model
Make your NBA calls: Over/Under, Open Line and Winner. Compare your calls with the results and earn points in the predictor standings.
One call per game in each mode. Calls lock at tip-off. Points have no monetary value.
Every stat. Every player.Every night.
AUGUR player impact · latest The unit is points per 100 possessions. A score of 0 is league average.
Box scores miss screens, spacing and defense. AUGUR starts from what the scoreboard says a lineup should have produced, strips the luck out, and splits the credit among the five on the floor, combining offense and defense in one rating. Higher is better; players under 2,000 possessions are excluded, their estimates are still settling.
Gravity Gravity and AUGUR capture different skills: their correlation in this sample is only 0.07.
A different skill from impact: how much a defense bends toward a player, measured as the lift in his teammates' shot quality when he is on the floor. The league tracks this with cameras; we read it off play-by-play. Needs 4,000 possessions to settle.
| Player | AUGUR | Off | Def | Gravity | Poss |
|---|
| Player | Gravity | Poss |
|---|
| Player | Matchup | PTS | AST | REB | DREB | OREB | FGM | FGA | 3PM | 3PA | 2PM | 2PA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | MIN |
|---|
Day leaders are for members
Every player on the slate with every projected stat, sortable and searchable. A free account unlocks it.
Create your free accountSign inTop 15 · projected range Bar spans the 80% interval (P10–P90). Hover for the median and point estimate.
Risk vs. reward Projection (x) vs. uncertainty = P90−P10 (y). The dashed curve is the empirical league-median spread at each projection level (measured from every stored prediction; it's concave, not linear). Dot colour = distance from it: green = tighter than the median player at the same projection (a value pick), red = more volatile. Top players labelled; hover for detail.
ELO over time · Higher lines mean a stronger team rating. Choose a period above, then select up to 10 teams in the ranking. Select a line to keep that team in focus. Select its end label to change the line color.
| Team | Rec | Net | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | eFG% | 3PM | TOV | Opp eFG% | Opp 3PM | Forced TO |
|---|
| Player | GP | PPG | Proj | Volatility | MAE | Bias |
|---|
Articles & explanations
Explore the game through data. Player stories, clear explanations of our metrics, and a closer look at our projections.