How our projections work
Vates Sports combines NBA player projections, player-impact ratings and team-strength estimates. This guide explains what each number measures and how to read it.
What does a player projection mean?
The headline is the model's expected box-score value if the player takes part. It is a statistical estimate, not a promised result. The chance that he plays is a separate estimate.
Why do some stats show a range and others a probability?
Open a stat box to see the available detail. Supported stats use a P10–P90 range; zero-heavy stats such as blocks, steals, made threes and offensive rebounds show the probability of reaching a stated count instead. Some stats, including free throws, free-throw attempts and plus/minus, show the projection alone. Missing detail is not zero.
Is the projection the same as P50?
No. The headline is an expected value; P50 is a median estimate. They can differ, especially for stats where many games finish at zero.
How are projections produced?
The forecasting system uses historical box scores and game context. For many statistics, it estimates playing time and production per minute separately, then combines them. Published projections reflect the data available when they were generated.
What do AUGUR, Gravity and ELO measure?
AUGUR estimates a player's impact in points per 100 possessions, separating offense and defense. Gravity estimates the change in teammates' shot quality associated with a player being on the floor. ELO tracks team strength from game results. These measures answer different questions; none is a box-score projection.
When is the data updated?
The site is rebuilt by the scheduled pipeline, with additional projection updates when fresh information is processed. Check the displayed update time and selected sample. A recent page update does not mean every underlying measure uses the same time window.
Is this betting advice?
No. Vates Sports publishes statistical projections for information and entertainment. Nothing here is a recommendation to wager, and actual results will differ from any forecast.
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