What a team actually loses tonight
A player rating becomes more useful when it helps explain a matchup. How AUGUR connects player impact, the injury report and a team’s chances of winning.
A team’s record tells you what it has done. It does not tell you who is available tonight. AUGUR is our player-impact rating: an estimate in points per 100 possessions relative to a league-average player. It gives us a way to account for the players behind the team name.
Our game model combines team ELO with two views of the roster: its minutes-weighted strength, and its strength after accounting for players listed Out on the injury report. Comparing those views helps the model estimate how absences change the matchup. These are injury-report inputs, not confirmed lineups.
Put it against real games
We tested that approach on 3,816 games across 2021–2023, using walk-forward evaluation. For each test season, the game model learned from earlier seasons only. The player-impact values also came from prior seasons. The chart compares the average predicted home-win probability with the result in each group.